role for eleccriciey and natura! gas and, in ehe mix of primary energy sources, a tr ergy sourc e se annddc oc ewcahrndos l "ocgl ei easn. " e n Icni eesh eacnodn c eaxc cc oi cfudde evse l owp hmi ce hn c , wp oe lri e hypochesized, energy supply and demand accions can hold down CO 2 emissions in ehe EUR-12 region bur cannoc prevenc ehem from rising by 9b y%2 2b y%2 0b0y02, 0b2y01 9v e%r s ubsy 12909100 (aEnxd hanibdi,c-i2n).eThehelornagrgeec of scabilizacion r run, of a trend reversal is thus far from being achieved. The above -meneioned cargee can be achieved in ehe "alcer nario wieh a markee-econnoaemivyep" osliccey seeering colleceive and individual decisions and being underpinned by ehe accepeance of operacors and of ehe public. Tehhee"baultielding blocksofehe policy in rnaeive" scenar hanced role of eleceriicoi ae yr e, : wanheenre ehfefae cc itni vge (wa iire -hc ohnedai ee i po nu imn gp as ,n de lsepcae c re ic car, metr port sysoc);ema ms; orme oefrfei c i eenf fr i tcriaenns e industrial cechnologies; higher gracion ofenergy syseems (comb i i n n e e e d generaeion ofeleccriciey and heae for diserice heaeing and in induscrial p errgo yc ecsosne vs )e; r si ni oene sn; swi fiide der eufsfeo or tfsn iunc leena r and oeher sources (such as natura! gas and renewables). In guanricaeive cerms and versus 1990 levels, C0 2emissions grow by 4 % by 2000, stabilize around ehe year 2000 !eve! in ehe following years and r vere cheir trend i n ehe second decad e e ofehe newcencury, dropping by 7 % ver Thissus cheir 1990 value by 2020. resule is due in approximacely egual par mand and cs c c o o l d a e rg cr e era suesde eonfe nr guyc l de ae r energy and renewable sources, wich a moderate concribueion provided by E(INnclEeRxGnuYm-RbEerLsA1T9E9D0=C10A0R)BON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 120 100 ------ REFERENCE 122 103 -- • -- . ---. ---. �--. --. ,_ ALTERNATİVE 1990 2000 2010 CONTRIBUTIONS TO CO2ABATEMENT I (%N v T s H . " E EC "ALTERNATIVE" SCENARIO BY 2020 reference" scenario) Greacer effıciency in energy services for focused use of eleccriciey, ece. Greacer use of energy sources wbich do not release CO, (nuclcar ancl rcnewables) Shifr of ebe fuel mix rowards Natura! Gas TOTAL .... , 96 2020 14% 7% 3% 24% a mix with a larger share of natura! gas (Exhibit-3). curbing CO2 emissions. A scenario approach of EC-12" (Study in progress). REFERENCES Eurelectric, Forecascing Unit, Scr egy Group: "The role ofeleccricityaien OOcl.AL GAZ DERGİSİ SAYI. 29 115 .... ·----- J
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTcyMTY=