are also necessary co develop ehe infrastrucrures. But oneheother hand gas cannoc escape co remain compecive ocherwise no developmenc will be possible. To cope wich chac, a few elemencs will remain dominant: • Long term concracc wich ca.ke or pay obligacion should remain cheonlyway cosecureafairsharing of ehe risks becween producers and buyers in ehe fucure exporc projects and allow launching of very capical expensive projeccs. Spot market will remain marginal. • Only economically sound projeccs handled by reliable and powerful operacors will be able co ger ehe adequate fınancing. • On ehe concrary we cannoc ancicipate whac will be ehe economic sicuacion in 2010, and to give wrong pricing signals co the market today and chus endangering presenc confıdence ofour customers cowards our product. • In addicion, of course, we have co commit ourselves to reduce costs and risks as much as possible ali along ehe chain from production to gas users. • Ic might be in some cases more necessary than ever, for example in ehe case of mega projects, to gacher several companies in order to reach ehe optimum size and co share risks reasonably. • The possibility ro escablish cooperation between gas companies and vis-a-vis producers has to be maincained and when possible developed. • It mighc also be necessary in some cases to develop new schemes co allow launching of some specifıc projects particularly when economics are uneasy. 3. WHATWILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF GAS INDUSTRY iN EUROPE? 3.1. A new coııtext But it is then my views time since ehe bases remain unchanged there should not be major u pheaval in ehe way European gas induscry is doing business. But on ehe other hand some changes are needed or may be imposed from outside ehe gas induscry. Increase ofehe operator size - by gachering forces - and in some specifıc cases growing vertical incegracion from ehe market to ehe fıeld: The concept of a global gas company may become sometimes necessary. But also extension and diversifıcation of activities and markets by gas companies chat might need co do so co concinue to imporove cheir effıciency through furcher economy of scale. Second, I have to mencion ehe dynamic ofchanges which is underway in Central Europe. Even if we exclude Russia a number of issues will be matter for changes. As those countries will gradually recover and their gas consum pcion raises u p again DOGAL GAZ DERGiSİ SAYI. 33 123 chey will legitimacely look for sources ofdiversifıcarion of their presenc supply porrfolio. This will inevicably create new patterns ofcooperation wirh those gas companies that may be able co help that process chrough new connection of pi peline grid. In these councries prices will have co be brought to incernational levels - ro ehe extent rheir markecs may scand it- opening ehe door co new supply schemes which are necessary co develop cheir market, and indeed, privacisacion process which may start in some of these councries will creace new ways of cooperation and incegrncion ebat may prove useful to ma.ke ehe transirion co market economy a success. Thirdly, I would like co mencion thac in ehe very next year it seems very unlikely thac ehe gas market in ehe world ceases co be organised on a regional level and ebat North America, Far East and Europe incerfere becween each ot her -as far as markecs are concerned . It is stili very unlikely that price levels allow that - apart in some parcicular places equidistant from two main marketing areas. Finally one cannot avoid to touch some political issues and especially ebat one related co regulation. Not forgecting ehe discussions that are going on in each councry I will restrict my commenc on ehe European community case and to ehe various attempts to incroduce at ehe European level a new gas regulacion. I need not comment long on such a matter which is very well known to you. The fact is however chat it is generally accepced now by elecced representatives of people as well as by ehe members state governmencs ebat given a certain and limited standardisation those issues have co be dealt wich according co ehe concept of subsidiaricy. That means that within a cercain framework ehe defınition of energy regulation should remain under ehe responsibilicy of national government ... at least uncil Europe is able co define, at a cencral level, some sorc of an energy policy which is stili far from being ehe case. There is of coursequite a disagreemenc coday with ehe commission on what should be ehe minimum common framework for Europe energy regulation. If third party access for gas seems co be rejecred by most parties involved there is stili incensive discussions ehe commission should now present a revised version of irs former project after European Parliament and Council of Miniscry have given their position. The only cercainty is that ehe process is far from ehe end and evolution, although limited, may occur ineheoneoreheother councry. But uncercaincies and constanc changes in ehe rules of ehe gamewould bevery detrimencal for our indusry development.
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